Saturday’s 3 Top 20 SEC Matchups Will Help Determine CFP Contenders


Starting this season, all of the Southeastern Conference football games air on ABC, ESPN or one of the other channels owned by the Walt Disney Co. The deal, which runs through the 2033-34 school year, has so far been a boon. The SEC has 10 teams in the Associated Press top 25 poll, leading to numerous intriguing matchups and high television ratings.

On Saturday, the conference has three games featuring top 20 teams, starting with No. 8 Ole Miss (6-1) at No. 13 Oklahoma (6-1) at noon Eastern Time on ABC, continuing with No. 15 Missouri (6-1) at No. 10 Vanderbilt (6-1) at 3:30 p.m. on ESPN and concluding with No. 3 Texas A&M (7-0) at No. 20 LSU (5-2) at 7:30 p.m. on ABC.

Each of those games will have a major impact on the SEC race, as well as which teams make the 12-team College Football Playoff. As of now, Texas A&M and No. 4 Alabama are tied atop the conference with 4-0 records against SEC opponents, while No. 5 Georgia is 4-1, with its lone loss coming by 24-21 against Alabama. Ole Miss is 3-1, while No. 22 Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are each 2-1.

A year ago, three SEC teams (No. 2 seed Georgia, No. 5 seed Texas and No. 9 seed Tennessee) made the CFP, but none of them advanced to the national title game, the second consecutive season that the league had no squad playing for the championship. This year, the SEC should have at least three teams in the CFP field, with The Athletic’s Austin Mock projecting four teams (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas A&M) to make it and Oklahoma and Missouri on the bubble.

Still, with the league having so many strong teams it is difficult to tell which ones will end up in the playoff, a goal that more than half of the teams and their fan bases see as realistic each year considering their investment in the programs.

Of the teams playing this weekend, LSU is the one that faces the most pressure. In November 2021, the Tigers hired Brian Kelly as head coach following the firing of Ed Orgeron, who led LSU to the 2019 national title but went 11-11 the next two seasons. At Notre Dame, Kelly had helped the Irish advance to the CFP in the 2018 and 2020 seasons when only four teams were in the field, but he hasn’t had the same success at LSU.

During Kelly’s first three seasons at LSU, the Tigers went 10-4, 10-3 and 9-4 but never qualified for the CFP. They entered this season ninth in the AP poll and moved up to No. 4 after a 4-0 start. However, LSU has lost twice in the past three weeks to Ole Miss 24-19 and Vanderbilt 31-24, both on the road.

On Saturday, the Tigers return home to face Texas A&M, one of only six undefeated teams in the nation and a school that has its highest AP ranking since 1995. Since Kelly arrived, LSU is 23-2 at Tiger Stadium, with the only losses occurring last year against Alabama and in 2022 against Tennessee. Even if they can upset A&M, the Tigers face a daunting schedule as they travel to Alabama on Nov. 8 and close the regular season at Oklahoma.

For A&M, a victory over LSU would go a long way to helping its CFP chances even if the Aggies end up losing a game in November, a stretch that includes road games at Missouri and Texas.

Saturday’s other two matchups featuring top 20 SEC teams are crucial, too. If Ole Miss can defeat Oklahoma, the Rebels should be in a good position for the playoff, as they don’t face any more ranked teams the rest of the regular season. As of now, Ole Miss has only defeated one top 25 team (LSU) but only has one loss (43-35 at Georgia last Saturday), so a victory over Oklahoma would go a long way in boosting its resume while a loss would hurt its at-large chances.

For Oklahoma, Saturday’s game is the start of a difficult five-game stretch to end the season, all against top 20 teams. After facing Ole Miss, the Sooners play at Tennessee and at Alabama before finishing with home games against Missouri and LSU. Oklahoma is only allowing 9.4 points per game and has a dual-threat quarterback in John Mateer, who has thrown for 1.567 yards and seven touchdowns and run for 209 yards and five touchdowns. Mateer, though, threw three interceptions in Oklahoma’s only loss of the season two weeks ago against Texas, which came shortly after he underwent thumb surgery. The Sooners need Mateer at full strength and for their defense to remain among the best in the nation if they are to make the CFP.

For Missouri and Vanderbilt, Saturday’s game will determine which upstart program will remain in CFP contention. Neither team was ranked in the preseason AP poll, but they each have 6-1 overall records with their only losses occurring against Alabama. They have two of the best young coaches in college football in Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz and Vanderbilt’s Clark Lea.

Drinkwitz, who took over in 2020, led the Tigers to double-digit victories in 2023 and 2024, while Lea, who took over in 2021, has had a remarkable turnaround. Vanderbilt was 0-9 the year before Lea arrived and went winless in the SEC in 2021 and 2023 when he was at the helm. But the Commodores improved to 7-6 (3-5 in the SEC) last season and are currently 10th in the AP poll, the program’s highest ranking since 1947.

Neither Missouri or Vanderbilt are thought of as traditional college football powers like some of their SEC opponents. Still, the winner Saturday will be in position with a strong finish in November to get into the playoff. Come mid-December, three or four or five SEC schools will almost certainly be preparing for CFP games. But with a month to go in the regular season, 10 of the league’s programs still harbor hopes that they will be chosen for the postseason, a scenario that will lead to many more compelling matchups in the weeks ahead.