Canelo Alvarez Vs. Terence Crawford: Odds, Records, Prediction

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 22: (L-R) Canelo Alvarez and Terence Crawford onstage during Fanatics Fest NYC 2025 at Javits Center on June 22, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images)

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Two future Hall of Famers will fight each other in the most anticipated mainstream boxing match of the year with the undisputed super middleweight championship on the line. While Canelo Alvarez’s status in history, win or lose, is set (when he retires, he’ll be considered one of the very best of his era and one of the best Mexican fighters of all time), Terence Crawford gets the opportunity to grab a legacy-defining victory. Here’s everything you need to know about Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Though Crawford is moving up in weight from 154 to 168 pounds and though Crawford had one of his shakier appearances the only time he fought at the 154-pound junior middleweight limit 13 months ago, he’s only a slight underdog against a legend like Alvarez.

The reason? Alvarez, the undisputed 168-pound champ, hasn’t had a truly impressive performance against an opponent in a 50-50 fight since beating Gennadiy Golovkin in 2022. Crawford, meanwhile, has never even been close to losing a fight. Plus, Crawford’s confidence is higher than ever, especially since it’s been revealed that Alvarez has employed Boots Ennis in sparring in an effort to mimic what Crawford can manage in the ring.

Crawford – the former undisputed junior welterweight and welterweight champion who would become the first boxer in the multiple-belt era to win a third undisputed championship with a victory on Saturday – is unconvinced that training with Ennis will help Alvarez.

“(Alvarez is) fighting the best fighter in the world. He better be taking it seriously,” Crawford said, via Fight Freaks Unite. “That goes to show how serious he’s taking me, how much he respects me. Because if I haven’t fought anyone, if I was too small, all of these things the media says I am, he wouldn’t need these guys to help prepare to fight me. He wouldn’t need all of the help that he’s been getting. I’m happy that he’s getting the help that he needs. After Sept. 13, there won’t be any excuses.”

This will by far be the biggest stage on which Crawford has performed. It’ll be broadcast live on Netflix, potentially in front of millions of viewers, and the event will be the first ever boxing match staged at Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders. But Alvarez has been here before. He’s fought in stadiums. He’s fought in front of millions. He’s poised for yet another huge spectacle.

“He’s a good fighter. He has everything. He’s a complete fighter. He has a large experience. He’s a great fighter,” Alvarez said. “That’s what I think. I never underestimate my opponents. I always train like I’m going to fight Mike Tyson in his era . . . You can see how big is this fight. I’m glad to be involved in these big fights. Crawford is one of the best fighters in the last decade, and I’m glad to be here.”

Here’s more info on the Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on Netflix beginning at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford odds

Ever since this fight was announced, the odds haven’t changed much, if at all. Alvarez is still the betting favorite at -180 (bet $180 to win $100), while Crawford is the +145 underdog (win $145 on a $100 wager). This is a close enough fight where I’d be comfortable taking either money line, but if you want to take a little more risk with a potentially better reward, I like Alvarez to win by decision at +120 and Crawford to win by decision at +220.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Alvarez to win by decision at -180, Callum Walsh to beat Fernando Vargas Jr. at -300 and Naoya Inoue to stop Murodjon Akhmadaliev at -240. If all those hit, you’d win $193 on a $100 bet.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford records

While it appears that Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs), at the age of 35 and with 67 professional fights, is slowing down in the ring, his list of accomplishments against high-level opponents is impressive. Included among his victories including two vs. Gennadiy Golovkin, Miguel Cotto, Sergiy Kovalev, Caleb Plant and most recently against Edgar Berlanga. His two losses came to Floyd Mayweather and Dimitry Bivol. Talent-wise, Crawford, on a pound-for-pound level, is probably on a similar level as Mayweather and might even surpass Bivol.

Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) has never tasted defeat, and it’s never been all that close. In his most high profile win, he decimated Errol Spence in 2023, and he also scored impressive victories vs. Shawn Porter, Kell Brook and Amir Khan. But he also didn’t look as good as he normally does in his last fight vs. Israil Madrimov, the only time Crawford has fought above 147 pounds. And he’s only fought once a year for the past five years, so it’s not like the soon-to-be 38-year-old been the most active boxer in the sport.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford prediction

Though Crawford might have a few physical advantages (he’s taller with a longer wingspan) and though Crawford is so smart and mean (in a good way!) in the ring, he’s never faced somebody as good or as big as Alvarez. I don’t think Crawford will hurt Alvarez, and that will allow Alvarez to pressure at will and land big shots. Crawford’s chin is undeniably good, but Alvarez’s power, at some point, will start to affect him. Crawfor will last the entire fight, but Alvarez will pull away toward the end. Say Alvarez by decision, somewhere in the 115-113 range.